For the Love of God, vote to convict

Senator Johnson:

I am writing to you as your constituent urging—begging—you to vote to convict former President Trump for incitement of insurrection.

It’s possible that then-President Trump’s words on January 6th were not a thought-out call to action that started a riot. However, it’s clear that his words, lies, and campaign of disinformation going back to the first time he claimed that the November 3rd election would be rigged are what caused this insurrection.

The argument that the Senate cannot convict a former president is a garbage argument. If that were so, then all future presidents will have complete immunity to do whatever crimes against our country they wish in their last weeks in office. That is a dangerous and idiotic precedent to set.

The argument that Trump used the words “if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore” figuratively is dubious, but defensible. The argument that Trump had nothing to do with the insurrection is just stupid. There is no other word that is appropriate for a letter to a Senator than “stupid” for that belief.

If you do not vote to convict former President Trump of incitement of insurrection, then you are clearly either stupid (because you believe he’s innocent) or a coward (because you don’t want to face his racist, xenophobic, nationalist, authoritarianist base). Neither is acceptable. Vote to convict. And then vote again to bar him from running from office ever again. Then vote to censure Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley for their role in fanning the flames of insurrection on former President Trump’s coattails.

Thank you for your consideration.

Your Constituent

Letter to Senator Ron Johnson

Dear Senator Johnson:

I am writing to you as your constituent to exhort you to uphold the oath that you recently swore before God, Chief Justice Roberts, The Constitution, and The American People. You swore, along with your colleagues, to “do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws: so help me God.” 
 
If you believe, as you have stated publicly, that President Trump is above reproach, then you ought to do everything in your power to exonerate him, not merely dismiss charges and let their aura linger. As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported, “Johnson wrote that he viewed the inquiry as a ‘continuation of a concerted, and possibly coordinated, effort to sabotage the Trump administration,’ and he questioned the motives of government witnesses who have voiced concerns about Trump’s handling of Ukraine.” If there are efforts to sabotage the Trump administration, I urge you to call these “government witnesses” to formally, and under oath, testify before you and your colleagues, allowing you to question them directly.
If you vote alongside majority leader Senator McConnell to allow “opening arguments” to “be the full trial,” as Representative Schiff has charged, then I dare say three things:
  1. You will have violated aforementioned oath before God, and you will be accountable to The Almighty.
  2. You will have violated your oath of office to uphold the constitution, and represent my interests as an American Citizen and your constituent
  3. You are either a coward who does not believe your claims are supportable or you are a liar who does not believe your own claims. 
Again, as an American Citizen and your constituent, I urge you to uphold your oath to have an impartial, nonpartisan trial. Not a pre-ordained dismissal or partisan sham, but a trial that upholds the standards of jurisprudence; one becoming of the authors of the Federalist Papers. “Publius” made it clear that although the impeachment process ought to be like a court trial, the Senate must, for The Constitution to work, be the jurors and to conduct a trial for impeachment.
Sincerely,
Your Constituent

Letter to Ron Johnson

Dear Senator Johnson:

I am writing to you as your constituent to express my concern about President Trump’s tweets from July 14th, in which he insulted several duly elected congresswomen. Our president used–and has since doubled down on–historically racially charged verbiage to imply the sitting congresswomen ought to leave the country. This is unacceptable behavior for the Office of the President and an assault on public discourse.

Democrats and Republicans can, do, and should disagree on questions of policy, and event sometimes the relative importance of the values that underly policy. Like you, I do not support many/most of the policy proposals from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the congresswomen to whom the president appeared to be referring. However, this is not a policy question. It is a question of values. We should all agree that personal insults and inflammatory remarks with racist undertones are neither becoming of high office, nor will they improve the quality of life of people living in these United States.

I urge you, as my congressional representative, to use the medium of your choice to publicly denounce President Trump’s use of racist language and subsequent insults aimed at sitting Representatives.

Your constituent,

Federal Debt

Is the Republican Party the party of fiscal conservatives? Maybe, but it’s hard to make that argument as long as they deify Ronald Reagan.  President Obama certainly ballooned the deficit, but it wasn’t unprecedented if one looks at an exponential trendline. The fact that the debt is growing roughly exponentially is truly horrifying, but let’s take it for what it is. It’s also worth noting that the deficits seem to abate near an election year.

Screen Shot 2018-05-06 at 9.55.23 PM.png

President Obama introduced unprecedented (in terms of unadjusted and adjusted raw numbers) deficits, which goes a long ways to explaining the tea party.

More details and visualizations available at my Tableau Public profile.

Reply to Response from Rep. Mark Pocan

Recently, I wrote a letter to my representatives. Rep. Mark Pocan (2nd District of Wisconsin, including Madison) gave the below reply. In response, I send the following note.

Also worthy of note: Sen. Tammy Baldwin also replied; Sen. Ron Johnson did not.

Response from Rep. Pocan

Thank you for contacting me to express your support for clean energy and environmental conservation. I value your opinions and appreciate you taking the time to write me.

I share your strong commitment to preserving our natural habitats and keeping our lakes and waterways clean. The Second District is filled with beautiful state parks including Devil’s Lake in Sauk County, the University of Wisconsin Arboretum, and the Ice Age Trail in Dane County. We must bolster our outdoor economy and environmental tourism in the Second District by bringing communities together in the conservation process. Wisconsin’s lakes, rivers and streams have vital economic and cultural importance.

Like you, I recognize climate change represents one of the greatest threats to our country and our planet. Increasing carbon levels in our atmosphere, if allowed to continue unchecked, carry dire consequences for the future of our planet. I believe one of the best ways to preserve our environment is to invest in clean energy capabilities. If we make these investments in the short term we can ultimately make our energy use more efficient, giving American families and businesses opportunities to save money on energy usage. We must modernize our energy technology through research and development of new technologies, so that we continue to create and manufacture goods while reducing harmful pollution and saving consumers money.

In the Second District, we have already begun to take these types of proactive steps. In recent years, small businesses that sell wind turbines and solar panels have been increasingly successful in our communities. I hope growing awareness regarding the cost-savings in renewable energy will continue to benefit small businesses that support a clean environment.

We must also preserve our environment and wildlife species by strengthening measures to protect these natural habitats and public lands. I strongly oppose efforts to weaken environmental conservation standards, including measures to undermine the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and place burdensome requirements on the Fish and Wildlife Service. With so many species of plants and animals on the verge of extinction, we cannot afford to weaken these established protections.

As a member of the House Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Caucus, the House Safe Climate Caucus, and the Animal Protection Caucus, I will advocate for policies that protect our wildlife and promote investments in the research and development of sustainable, clean, and renewable energy. Throughout my time in Congress, I have consistently supported environmental protection legislation and worked to close loopholes which allow corporations to pollute our environment without facing any consequences. I strongly believe we must protect our natural resources, including federal lands. You may be interested to know that I introduced the Protect Our Public Lands Act, H.R. 1902, which bans hydraulic fracturing on federally owned public lands. There are many steps Congress can take to ensure our natural resources are protected and preserved for generations to come. Please know that I will keep your thoughts in mind as I continue to work in support of clean energy and environmental conservation.

My Reply to Rep. Pocan

Dear Representative Pocan:

Recently, I contacted you about my concerns regarding HR 1430 and the state of Science in today’s political climate and discourse. You replied with a thoughtful letter about the importance of finding 21st century energy solutions and combatting climate change. I appreciate your letter, and fully agree with the points you made. As a result, I will consider voting for you this November (full disclosure: I have not voted for you in the past, either because you were unopposed or because I voted 3rd party).

However, your letter failed to address my key concerns with HR 1430.

I recognize climate change as an important–arguably the most important–issue facing the future of our country and even the human race. But I’m more concerned about how we approach this issue; the Republican claims that climate regulations will in hurt jobs are not unreasonable in many cases. I believe we must approach climate change in an evidence based-based manner, and my concern with HR1430 is not that is anti-environment (though it is and that does concern me), but rather that it is fundamentally anti-scientific.

My exhortation for you is to not just propose bills that better the environment, but to propose bills that promote Science and evidence-based policy. Furthermore, I would like your input on how I, as a citizen, can support the cause of Science, Evidence, and Objective Truth in today’s political climate.

Thank you for considering this,
– The Tattooed Economist [I gave my real name in the letter]

 

I will absolutely post any germane response to this blog, if a truly relevant response arrives.

I don’t call myself an Evangelical for the same reason I can’t call myself a Liberal

In a recent article in the Atlantic, Evangelical and Republican political analyst Michael Gerson laid out the history behind a conundrum: “One of the most extraordinary things about our current politics […] is the loyal adherence of religious conservatives to Donald Trump.” The piece is excellent, and you should all go read it. Mr. Gerson’s motivation for writing this article was to attempt to save the word “evangelical” because “some words, like strategic castles, are worth defending, and evangelical is among them.”

In this post, I would like to offer why I disagree with that sentiment. This is far from a rebuttal of Mr. Gerson, but rather additional context and history, albeit history that is less well organized than Gerson’s, surrounding my view of words more generally. I also want to expound on some points Gerson approaches, but doesn’t elucidate, regarding evangelicals today. This will be a much less cohesive/organized post than many, but this is just where my brain is right now.

Evangelicals’ Strange Bedfellows

If Donald Trump is good at one thing, it’s pandering to people who feel left behind or repressed. Trump’s abrasive rhetoric of blaming others endeared him most notably to white men with lower levels of education in rural areas. In other words: the people who feel left behind or ignored by the rest of the country. Likewise, he appealed to manufacturing workers who want to blame hispanics for taking their jobs, rather than acknowledging that their jobs are obsolete. And so too Evangelicals, who feel oppressed by a dissolute culture that views them as old fashioned hypocrites. For that last group, it’s worth quoting Gerson at length:

Fundamentalism embraced traditional religious views, but it did not propose a return to an older evangelicalism. Instead it responded to modernity in ways that cut it off from its own past. In reacting against higher criticism, it became simplistic and overliteral in its reading of scripture. In reacting against evolution, it became anti-scientific in its general orientation. In reacting against the Social Gospel, it came to regard the whole concept of social justice as a dangerous liberal idea. This last point constituted what some scholars have called the “Great Reversal,” which took place from about 1900 to 1930. “All progressive social concern,” Marsden writes, “whether political or private, became suspect among revivalist evangelicals and was relegated to a very minor role.”

After falling from their position as the leaders of the Abolitionists to sidelined for the civil rights movement, the Evangelical Church became more and more passe as a cultural force. But far from obsolete, there’s still a strong “good old days” fallacy amongst people who still call themselves Evangelicals–yearning for the days when America was more moral; back when the Church had more influence on civic life. This fallacy made them prime targets for Trump’s manipulation.

Anyone who thinks most Bible-thumping politicians like Roy Moore are Evangelicals by belief structure–that is, he believes in a saviour who wants to form a personal relationship with him to transform his life–is probably kidding herself, but Moore is one of many in a long line of politicians who have learned how to say the right things about hot-button issues to rally the evangelical vote. How else can you explain how white Evangelicals are more similarly distributed to NRA conservatives than the general population with regard to gun control? Don’t get me wrong: Evangelicals are decisively more open to, and in some cases in favor of, more gun regulation than the NRA, but less so than one might expect the “pro-life ethos” would demand. (Christianity Today did a good summary of Pew Research outlining these statistics). And this is because politics have made strange bedfellows between groups with different aims coming from the same motivation: both the NRA and Evangelicals don’t like government intrusion on their rights, but are perfectly fine having the government intrude on others’ rights on their behalf. They found common ground in this regard, and made a political alliance.

The US doesn’t have a parliamentary system formed on party alliances, so we just have single issue voters coalescing into a political party with a full platform where no one in the party cares about more than a couple of the issues in that platform. Thus we have today’s Republican party, which blends economic conservatives, social conservatives, and xenophobic nationalists into a weird, incongruous amalgamation.

Political and Social Repression of Evangelicals and Microaggressions

This strange Republican coalition not surprisingly–nay, inevitably–leads to a fair bit of of criticism of Evangelicals. As a result of their political alliances, Evangelicals have internalized–and to some degree spiritualized–the political priorities of their allies like the NRA and fiscal conservatives. This results in a fair bit of hypocrisy on the part of the Religious Right: rather than championing social justice–a very prevalent theme in the Bible, particularly the minor prophets–Evangelicals are seen as a repressive force, lumped in with crazies like Westboro Baptist “Church” (I use scarequotes because I believe them to be more of a cult than a Church). Some of this criticism deserved, like Evangelicals’ undue emphasis on anti-LGBTQ policies–homosexuality may be Biblically questionable, but the fact that all people are made in the Image of God is not. Some of it is undeserved, or at least exaggerated, like the criticism that all Christians are illogical and anti-scientific–for example, in the introduction to his book, The God Delusion, Richard Dawkins equated religion with severe mental illness by saying he and his psychologist friends had talked about classifying a belief in God or miracles as a “Religious Delusion” or “Relusion” (though to be fair to psychologists, this definition of “Religious Delusion” is only held by a small minority of psychologists).

And some of the “oppression” itself is hypocritically misperceived.

Ironically, this leads to a similar phenomenon as perceived microaggressions that most religious right conservatives bristle at. Evangelicals are often quick to point out oppressions that I would call fake microaggressions or overreactions. Microaggressions are “the casual degradation of any marginalized group” (thank-you Wikipedia) and they are real, largely in the form of assuming and acting upon racial stereotypes. However, many hyper-liberals have taken the term way too far. For example, it’s not (or at least shouldn’t be) a microaggression for a white person to ask a black person about his/her hair. If us white folks aren’t allowed to earnestly ask about literally surface level differences between races, then how can we expect/hope to have a deeper discussion about the types of systemic racism African Americans face? I don’t mean to sound insensitive, but I think any African American who has interpreted “can I feel your hair?” as a microaggression is probably overreacting (though I say “probably,” because it’s not inconceivable that the context was such that this was a microaggression, I just find that possible context improbable) Some microaggressions are real, but many are either people being overly sensitive or people just being jerks with no larger narrative… because all people are sometimes jerks.

Similarly, when alleged Evangelicals on Fox News decry “the War on Christmas” as somehow part of a wider conspiracy to discriminate against Christians, I call BS: Fake Microaggression. The phenomenon of using the phrase “Happy Holidays” instead of “Merry Christmas” makes for an easy, almost cheapshot, example of perceived-but-fake microaggression, but there are plenty of other fake and real microaggressions leveled at Evangelicals: assuming they hate homosexuals (possibly a real microaggression, more likely a justified question), assuming they’re no fun (real microaggression), sexually provocative ads because “sex sells” (fake microaggression), not requiring Creationism be taught in science class (fake microagression), accusing them of misogyny (possibly a justified question, probably a microaggression), atheists existing (fake microaggression), blaming most wars throughout post-Roman history on Religion (false, but also a real microaggression).

Vicious Cycle

These microaggressions–some as a result of hypocrisy, some real, and some fake–then breed a victim complex. Sometimes, this perceived victimization is justified theologically: “If the world hates you, keep in mind that it hated [Jesus Christ] first” (John 15:18). Being mocked for religious beliefs gets interpreted as being mocked for Christ’s sake, which is a sort of badge of honor, vindicating the underlying behavior. This may very well be true in some cases, but like “turn the other cheek” (Matthew 5:19), I believe this passage is used to justify behavior that Jesus himself would not endorse, like being a sanctimonious jerk who belittles non-Christians.

There certainly is a time and place for Christians to be counter-cultural and criticize the Zeitgeist, even when it makes them unpopular. The Evangelical-led Abolitionist movement comes to mind as a shining example of doing this correctly. But there is also a time for Christians to take criticisms seriously, and re-evaluate whether they are behaving in a Christ-like manner. Overliteral interpretations of the Bible and regarding it as a literal science textbook are a cause for criticism that should make Evangelicals give pause (note: there are theologically and scientifically reasonable arguments for Creationism, but I don’t believe most Creationists know or understand these arguments). From its inception, Christianity was counter-cultural by giving rights and dignity to Jews and Gentiles, Men and Women, Slave and Free (Galatians 3:28), which was a completely novel concept in the 1st century. In the 21st century, after more than a millennium of Judeo-Christian influence, it should be a given that the Christian response to cultural trends and norms should be very different than that of the first Christians. Forgetting that fact justifies avoiding introspection and self-evaluation. Neglecting those things tends to encourage the darker parts of human nature to grow in their influence, and makes people unreflective sanctimonious versions of what they could be, and those versions of ourselves usually really are worth hating, and that’s not persecution.

Bringing this Back to Words

The above is a description of the type of person and worldview that the word “Evangelical” has come to describe for me. I recognize that the word has deep theological roots that go far beyond social constructions and connotations, but words change over time. The word “Liberal” has deep roots in the philosophical and political economy writings of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill. In Europe, the word “Liberal” still largely refers to what Americans would call “Libertarian,” but in the United States, “Liberal” is more closely associated with the ideas of John Maynard Keynes than the ideas of Mill. As someone whose political views were heavily influenced by Mill and the intellectual tradition of Liberalism, this is a loss.

But it is also a sunk cost. The social lexicon is emergent, and it’s extremely difficult for any one individual, particularly one without a very loud social microphone, to change the definition of a word–at least one that has evolved organically. It’s true that people like Sarah Palin have redefined phrases like “End of Life Planning” in the social lexicon, but that phrase had a very specific definition in a fairly limited, technical context. Liberal and Evangelical are words whose meaning has evolved in a much broader context, so they aren’t as easy to reclaim. I wish that society’s dictionary would respect historical precedents and precision of language, but alas it does not.

Let the Old Name Die, and the Idea Reborn

Bringing things to a close, I wish I could call myself a Liberal, because my political views are very closely aligned to those of the Classical Liberals. But doing so would lead to all sorts of confusion, because I vehemently disagree with the Keynesian ideas and policy recommendations that form the basis of many “Liberal” ideas in modern America. Similarly, theologically, many of my beliefs are similar to those of 19th century Evangelicals like R. A. Torrey (albeit with a notable millennial bent). But most modern Evangelicals don’t know how Torrey was, much less read his writings. Words like Evangelical, Republican, Liberal, and even Democratic (capital or lowercase D?)–and many others that I won’t bring up for fear of distraction or tangent–all have rich histories, but they also have presents that deviate from those histories. Perhaps it’s time for a “rebirth” of the movement by its old name, and this period of time will be labeled something like “The Scandal Years” in future history textbooks and Wikipedia articles about these words.

Or perhaps it’s time to let the best parts of the movements and worldviews that these words once represented be revitalized under a new name.

Let the old name die, and the central idea live on, without the baggage the words have acquired over the years. Gerson isn’t necessarily wrong that some words are worth defending, but I would argue that a good general knows when a strategic castle is lost, and it’s futile and counterproductive to try to save them: reinforce the next castle; find the next word.

Letter to Representative Mark Pocan

I sent this letter (and a Senate variant) to my representatives this morning. Unfortunately, I was too late for the House vote, and this stupid bill passed the house on Friday.

Dear Representative Pocan:

I am writing as one of your constituents to express my concerns with HR 1430, the Honest and Open New EPA Science Treatment Act of 2017 or the HONEST Act. This bill is based on a misunderstanding of science and sets an extremely narrow and unnecessary limit on the scientific evidence the EPA will accept.

President Trump and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Director Scott Pruitt have both shown blatant disrespect and misunderstanding of how science is conducted. This bill nakedly uses the language of legitimate criticisms of aspects academic research to discredit the whole enterprise of scientific research, which is both ignorant and extremely disturbing when coming from the highest levels of government. This act is anything but “honest.”

The standards it sets for what research the EPA can use is “best available science, specifically identified, and publicly available in a manner sufficient for independent analysis and substantial reproduction of research results.” This definition is both subjective in its use of “substantial,” and also unnecessarily excludes studies where the full dataset is not available to the general public. While I would love to see more datasets made available to the general public, forbidding the EPA from acting on evidence without published datasets is the wrong way to go about that and is another example of the present administration doing what is right for their favored political special interest groups rather than what empirical evidence suggests is the right way forward.

With that in mind, I would ask you, as my representative, to use your influence, vote, and voice in Congress to fight such ignorant approaches to science and environmental issues.

If Congress or Secretary Pruitt is truly concerned about the quality of published research and reproducibility of environmental science, I encourage Congress to give funding through the National Science Foundation and other grant programs to fund reproduction studies. Similarly, you could provide funding for pure data collection activities or public datasets that should be made permanently available on the EPA website. In the meantime, vote NO on HR 1430.

Sincerely

[The Tattooed Economist]

Response from Senator Baldwin

A while back, I wrote a letter to my federal, congressional representatives: Representative Mark Pocan (D), Senator Tammy Baldwin (D), and Senator Ron Johnson (R). I just got a response from Sen. Baldwin, which I’ve pasted below. There content is kind of insane, and I might comment on that later, but what is important to call out is that I got a response.

Rep Pocan has a checkbox option for “Do you want a response?” to which I said no.

Ron Johnson’s office sent me an automated email thanking me for my feedback.

Tammy Baldwin’s office sent me an automated email, and then took two weeks to write what appears to be at least a somewhat customized response.

I still haven’t heard a real response from Johnson.

Baldwin’s response uses Trump-level rhetoric about “China’s cheating” and a Marco Rubio-esque “people buy into my agenda” disregard for constituents, but she gave a response. The response was probably a staffer combining paragraphs from previous press releases that seem to be related to my letter, but that’s pretty great: it’s not just a stock letter (I assume, since it’s a little disjointed and repetitious).

I disagree with almost everything Baldwin (or at least her office) is claiming here, but I appreciate that one of her staffers took the time to try to help me hold her accountable.

So where’s Ron Johnson? If I get a letter from him, I’ll be sure to post it. But if I don’t, the impression he gives is that he’s more interested in his own Senatorial power than actually representing me, his constituent (who voted Libertarian in 2016) or acknowledging my concerns. And that’s how we move from a representative democracy to a senatorial oligarchy… or, as is the case with Sen. Johnson, to a rump senate who defers to an autocratic strongman who cares more about fame than power and cares more about power than doing what’s right.

 

Response from Senator Baldwin, in all it’s nebulous, anti-trade glory (emphasis and parentheticals mine):

Dear Mr. [Tattooed_Economist]:

Thank you for contacting me about trade policy.  It is good to hear from you on this important issue.

In April 2017, President Trump signed executive orders directing the Secretary of Commerce to investigate whether steel and aluminum imports threaten our national security, as authorized under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.  On March 8, 2018, President Trump signed orders imposing tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports.

I believe the best way to support Wisconsin workers is to put in place strong Buy America standards, renegotiate a better deal on NAFTA, and take on China’s cheating.  The President’s announcement sends a strong message to bad actors like China on steel and aluminum.  Further, as the nation’s leading paper producer, Wisconsin needs President Trump to do more to target China’s cheating—which has hurt our paper economy and led to layoffs (WTF?? Paper is hurt by China? Not digitalization?).  Lastly, I called on President Trump to exempt our European trading partners if they commit to fighting China’s cheating (What is this “cheating”? But at least she’s calling for key exemptions)—we need to work together to ensure that Wisconsin’s manufacturing and farming economy isn’t hurt by these efforts (okay, but curbing trade is inherently harmful to the consumer, and both farmers and manufacturers are hurt more by automation and rent-seeking oligopolies than trade).  I am pleased that United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer recently announced temporary exemptions for the EU and other countries as they negotiate with the United States.

In addition, on March 22, 2017, President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, citing China’s thefts of American intellectual property (If IP is the reason for this, that’s fine, but Trump’s communication with the public suggests otherwise).  I welcome the Trump Administration taking a targeted approach to China’s cheating.  In this case, cracking down on China’s violation of intellectual property laws is something I support because the theft of American intellectual property threatens economic growth and American jobs.

Finally, on January 24, 2017, I sent a letter to President Trump outlining my trade and economic policy priorities.  My letter emphasizes the need to take on unfair trade deals, fight against outsourcing, establish strong ‘Buy America’ rules and crack down on countries like China when they cheat American workers.  I encourage you to access the full letter on my website at: https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/press-releases/trade-letter-trump.

Once again, thank you for contacting my office.  It is important for me to hear from the people of Wisconsin on the issues, thoughts and concerns that matter most to you.  If I can be of further assistance, please visit my website at www.baldwin.senate.gov for information on how to contact my office.

Sincerely,

Tammy Baldwin

 

Thanks for reading,

The Tattooed Economist

Vaccines, Gun Control, and the Pernicious Power of a well-timed Study

The Ideal of Science is built on the ideas of falsification, unbiased testing and retesting hypotheses, replication, and skepticism towards novel results until a body of evidence coalesces around a repeated finding. There are a number of factors in both human nature and in the current state of academic research that deviate from this ideal, but on the whole, science, as conducted by humans and published in academic journals, is arguably the best tool we have for discovering the empirical realities around us. Most of the time.

Thanks to humanity’s love for controversy and surprising (even unbelievable) findings, which are compounded by the media’s reporting on scientific findings (especially social media), Science is also frighteningly easy to manipulate and falsify to serve the baser ends of individuals of low integrity. Thus we have the possibility that a single study biased by a pursuit of something other than the truth can do huge amounts of damage to society, and indeed human progress, if it comes first and is emotionally visceral enough.

In my research for the previous two posts I did about gun control, I found an interesting parallel that I wanted to share between gun violence research and vaccine research; specifically, the similarities between Andrew Wakefield and John Lott.

Andrew Wakefield

Wakefield was a British physician who published the first paper that alleged a causal link between the Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) Vaccines and Autism in 1998. Rightly so, this paper caused a splash in both popular and academic circles, and numerous other researchers began looking to replicate the results and look for the causal mechanism between MMR vaccines and autism. As subsequent results started being published, the replicability of Wakefield’s findings started to come into question. This happens in science–particularly with publication bias in academic research, so there are lots of studies that end up not reproducing, and that’s just a part of science and why replication and repeated experiments are so important.

However, after a few years, it became apparent that Wakefield’s results might be more than just another study that got p<0.05 by random chance. An investigative journalist named Brian Deer began looking into the Wakefield study to see how a study that caused such a big splash had turned out to be false. Eventually it came out that Wakefield had intentionally fabricated the results of the study to discredit the MMR Vaccine because he had gotten a patent for his own measles vaccine, and his research was funded by lawyers trying to create evidence for a malpractice case. Eventually, his paper was withdrawn, and both the US and UK have barred Wakefield from practicing medicine (thus, he was a physician). He continues to give lectures and write articles (albeit not academic ones) for the anti-vaccine community about the dangers of MMR vaccines.

John Lott

I wrote about Dr. Lott (he still has his PhD) a little bit in a previous post, but let’s recap a bit. Lott was an academic economist, and in 1997 he an a colleague published an article claiming that making concealed carry laws more accessible dramatically lowered the overall rate of crime. Just like Wakefield’s paper, this rightly caused a splash, and very quickly response articles started being published. Unlike investigating the link between MMR and Vaccines, the choices in how to tease out causation from a variety of correlations in econometric regressions is as much art as it is science, and complicated, uninterpretable models are not just possible, but often encouraged (whether explicitly in the name of “sophistication” or implicitly through publication bias). This is a problem for science generally, but more on topic, it also means that it’s very easy to make modeling choices that give the results you want, but don’t give a robust or reliable model.

Such was the case with Lott’s 1997 study. Subsequent reviews of his analysis found that his model was highly susceptible to outliers, didn’t account for other variables that have been plausibly connected to crime rates falling (many of these other factors are examined by Donahue and Levitt, which was republished in the popular book, Freakonomics), and generally was a pretty weak and biased article. As a result of his intransigence with regard to gun regulation in the face of mounting evidence, Lott has generally had a very hard time getting published or getting a reputable academic job for the last decade or so, and now he’s primarily a columnist for Fox News and the head of his own non-profit, the Crime Prevention Research Center.

The Problem for Public Debate

Both Wakefield and Lott have been all but completely discredited within the wider academic community. This is how science and the marketplace of ideas more generally are supposed to work: if you publish a study that isn’t true, it won’t reproduce and a body of evidence will prove it false; if you refuse to accept the body of evidence that shows that your evidence is weak, mismanaged, or possibly fraudulent, then you don’t get a seat at the table anymore. (Note: there is a time and place for resisting the majority opinion, but both Wakefield and Lott have gone beyond reasonable levels of resistance to a level of either willful ignorance or nefarious intent.) The problem is that the wider academic community is boring and ignored by the general public, particularly the tweeting public, so these debunked “scientific studies” remain evidence for people who don’t care about the truth to use to sway people who don’t have the time or energy to adequately search for the truth.

Both studies have bodies of evidence disproving them. But they’ve both come and made a mark on the public debate. “More Guns, Less Crime” is not just the name of Lott’s book, it’s become a rallying cry for the NRA and the politicians they fund, despite being debunked. Concerns about vaccines are finally starting to shift away from autism, but people are still wary of them for ever-vaguer reasons. The media reports on shocking new findings, but they don’t loop back to cover the slow-building mountain of evidence, so it’s not that surprising that most people don’t know what the evidence really says–but that doesn’t stop them from thinking they know what it says, because they heard that one study on the media.

The Problem for Human Progress

Human progress is at least tightly connected with scientific progress, if not predominantly driven by it. But when the scientific discourse gets distracted by debunking the work of unethical researchers, the opportunity cost is discourse that would advance society. When bullshit artists (e.g. lobbyists) have “scientific studies” to corroborate their side, observers understandably lose faith in “science,” further curtailing the ability of researchers to convert data into findings and those findings into meaningful steps forward.

In two fields we have the case that a single study got published and was debunked within 5 years, but went on to shape the public discussion on the topic for the next 20 years. That’s 15 years of discussions that would have been better spent discussing the next problem. In the case of vaccines, we spend so much time showing that MMR doesn’t cause autism, that not enough research is being done to prove that the current schedule of 6 vaccines at a time doesn’t have negative impacts for some subpopulations. For guns, we pit empirical evidence against the logic of deterrence rather than looking for ways to solve the real problems of balancing black markets with restrictive background checks and an inefficient, outdated reporting and background check system. But instead, we’re discussing closed questions, to the edification of no one.

Outro

I don’t have a solution here. I mostly wrote this because I thought it was an interesting parallel and I like sharing things I find interesting. But there is an exhortation here: don’t trust a single study, especially if it just came out. This is not to say we should assume all new studies are false or ignore them, but we should have a healthy level of skepticism. I know I’m guilty of this as well (even in this article I cite a news article referencing a “first-of-its-kind study”), but when a new study comes out, we should first evaluate the methodology, and then we should keep paying attention for a few years to see what kind of body of evidence builds up.

This is hard to do, and things that are hard to do rarely become social norms, but I’m hopeful that the renewed focus on “Fake” and “Truthful” news may have spillover effects into how we consume reporting on scientific studies (I have to be, otherwise this is all way too depressing). But that’s only going to be happen if we learn the lesson from these two papers and remember that a single paper does not a body of evidence make.